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Is China Cooking The Books? 

CarlosMurphy

Looks like China has been cooking the books when it comes to its exports according to Bank of America. Things are a lot worse than they are letting on even echoing the pattern in 2008.

Latest research figures carried out by the Bank of America Corp. are set to rock the economies around the world once again. Has China been hiding the real state of its economic data? It would seem that the PRC hasn’t been quite as honest as it might have us all believe! According to the Bank of America Corp., the Chinese trade surplus that was meant to stand at some $61 billion turns out to be a meager mere tenth of that so far this year.
The true figure amounts to only $6 billion and that means it will be the smallest Q1 figure posted since the $10.8-billion deficit in 2004. Research on calculations carried out by the head of BoA’s Greater China Division, Lu Ting, suggests that the supposed tripling of China’s surplus was nothing more than fake, and that China has been cooking the books to appear to be better off than the rest of the world. True figures point to the fact that China’s growth rate is slowing down and that the economy is being restrained rather surging ahead. There’s being growing cause for concern since January this year as it turns out that China has been fibbing about its unemployment figures as well as GDP. Growing skepticism amongst analysts has led to worldwide concern as to the ability to provide real trade data.
Some are saying that the export situation can be likened to 2008 at the very moment when the financial crisis hit the world. China too was plunged into a difficult time as exports decreased back then. Shipments plummeted and out of that panic grew illegal practices in a bid to make money. Irregularities in export data have emerged and allowed for hot-money flows.
True figures seem to highlight that we have had the wool pulled over our eyes as figures show that there is a real growth of just 5% in exports, whereas the PRC has issued figures as high as 17.4%. Similarly, imports have increased by 7.6%, rather than the official government line figure of 10.6%. In a recent Bloomberg poll, investors believe that the Chinese economy is set to deteriorate in the coming year, despite what the official government figures might be stating.
But, it’s no consolation that China’s economy has also taken a downtown like the rest of us. While growth seems to be still partly there, it is definitely slowing down. That could be bad news for the rest of us, in already economic hard times, as we could see a knock-on effect around the world. That’s something we could surely do without right now! This is all in the wake of the Yuan’s all–time high. It currently stands at its highest level for almost twenty years in comparison with the Dollar. The Yen is suffering badly too from the adverse effects of never-before-seen monetary easing policies implemented by the Japanese government. Where do we go from here? Well, questions are now being raised as to how much longer China can withstand a growing Yuan in the face of a failing Dollar and troubled Yen. If it carries on much longer, China can only be on the receiving end of the adverse effects of that.